A no-first-use nuclear policy means that the United States would commit to never being the first nation to use nuclear weapons in any conflict, 对现行政策的改变.
在现行政策下, the United States will not use nuclear weapons against the vast majority of the world's countries in any circumstances. 这是美国长期以来的政策，在特朗普政府2018年的政策中得到了重申 核态势评估(NPR), says that the United States "will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] and in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations"; this promise covers more than 180 countries (OSD 2018). 这种策略被称为“消极安全保证”."
然而，中国，俄罗斯和朝鲜 不属于美国的负面安全保证. 中国和俄罗斯是《517888九五至尊娱乐》下的核武器国家, 朝鲜于2003年退出该条约，并于2006年进行了首次核试验.
这意味着它们可能成为美国核武器的目标, 包括美国首先向他们发射武器.
One noteworthy thing about today’s landscape is that the Trump administration's NPR has significantly expanded the definition of "extreme." Both the Obama and Trump administration NPRs state that the United States “would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.“然而, the Obama version stated that use would be limited to “a narrow range of contingencies” and emphasized that the goal was to continue to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks, with the objective of making deterrence of nuclear attack on the United States or our allies and partners the sole purpose of US nuclear weapons.”
特朗普的NPR扩大了“极端情况”的定义,他说，这些“可能包括重大的非核攻击”. 重大的非核攻击包括但不限于对美国的攻击.S.美国、盟国或合作伙伴的平民人口或基础设施，以及对美国军事基地的袭击.S. 或盟国的核力量，他们的指挥和控制，或警告和攻击评估.“根据美国的政策，这可能包括将网络攻击作为使用核武器的正当理由.
承诺不首先使用核武器
A no-first-use nuclear policy means that the United States would commit to never use nuclear weapons first, 要么作为第一击(即, 突如其来的突然袭击), 作为常规冲突中的升级行动, 或者是为了应对非核攻击.
The only situation in which the US would use nuclear weapons would be in response to a confirmed nuclear attack on itself or its allies.
“不首先使用”声明和“唯一目的”声明之间的区别是什么?
不首先使用和唯一目的本质上是相同的. 在单目的声明中, a country states that the only purpose of its nuclear weapons is to deter or respond to a nuclear attack by another country. 这样的承诺将排除首先使用核武器的可能性.
发动核战争的五种方式
采用NFU如何使美国更安全?
There are many reasons why retaining the option of using nuclear weapons first is dangerous for the United States. If the president decided to cross the threshold and use nuclear weapons first against a nuclear-armed adversary (Russia, 中国, 或北韩), 这些国家几乎肯定会用核武器进行报复, 要么直接针对美国，要么针对其盟友. Maintaining a first-use option therefore increases the chance of a catastrophic attack against the US public.
除了, if a nuclear-armed adversary is concerned that the United States might use nuclear weapons first in a crisis, that could increase the adversary's incentive to go nuclear first because of "use-it-or-lose-it" thinking—that is, 担心如果美国首先发动攻击，它可能会摧毁对手的核武库. 这种想法产生了在失去这些武器之前使用它们的压力.
除非作为报复措施，否则不考虑使用核武器可能会减轻这种压力, 在危机中，这将有助于延缓时间, allowing decision-makers more time to explore other solutions rather than quickly escalating the conflict.
NFU政策也会减少人们对 美国总统下令核攻击的唯一权力, since these concerns have focused primarily on a possible order to initiate the use of nuclear weapons in a crisis. An NFU policy would remove the option for the president to order the use of nuclear weapons except in retaliation for a nuclear attack.
同样值得记住的是 United States already has a no-first-use policy that applies to the vast majority of the world's countries. The rationale for that pledge is to reassure countries without nuclear weapons that they do not need nuclear weapons to deter a nuclear attack against them. This benefits US security by minimizing the number of nuclear-armed potential adversaries it has to deal with.
美国显然认为世界上大多数国家都相信这一承诺, 并认为对这些国家作出这样的NFU承诺是安全的.
还有其他国家有不首先使用核武器的政策吗?
自1964年首次开发核武器以来，中国一直奉行无条件不首先使用核武器的政策, 并一再重申了这一立场, 最近一次是在2019年7月发布的国防部国防白皮书中. Although some critics say this policy has little value because it is merely declarative and could change, 中国部署核力量的方式与不核威慑政策相一致. 与美国和俄罗斯不同，中国将核弹头与导弹分开储存. 在中国发动攻击之前，将弹头与导弹匹配需要时间, 因此，中国的核攻击不太可能出人意料.
从1982年到1993年，俄罗斯一直奉行不首先使用核武器的政策, when it changed its policy out of fear that its weakened conventional forces could no longer deter the United States without the threat of use of nuclear weapons. In 2003, India adopted a conditional no-first-use policy that reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if Indian forces are attacked with biological or chemical weapons.
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